Aurad Assembly constituency is situated in the Bidar district of Karnataka. The constituency is one the 8 Assembly constituencies located under the Bidar Parliament seat and is a Scheduled Caste reserved constituency.
The Assembly constituency has been a stronghold of BJP and the party has won 4 out of 5 Assembly election held in the region since 1999. The BJP stronghold in the region has been strengthened under the leadership of Prabhu Chauhan who has won three previous Assembly elections in 2008, 2013 and 2018 . In 2018 Assembly elections Prabhu Chauhan of BJP (50.92%) defeated Vijaykumar of INC (43.73%) by a margin of 10592 votes. Prabhu Chauhan is also the Minister of State for Animal Husbandry Department of Karnataka under the Basavaraj Bommai cabinet.
The BJP stronghold in the constituency has been backed by the vote bank of the Lingayat community in the region. Traditionally the political inclination of the Lingayat community has had been towards BJP. This has been a major reason why Prabhu Chauhan was able to retain the seat consecutively across three Assembly elections. It needs to be taken into consideration that this inclination towards BJP is slowly diminishing as Lingayat community have become upset with BJP catering to the Brahmins in the State over them. The Lingayat population in this Assembly constituency is around 30%. The agitation against BJP has further deepened among other communities as well. The Maratha community is agitated against MLA Prabhu Chauhan for his recent imposition of Section 144 IPC in the region during Mahashivratri in Maratha dominated villages barring any celebration during that period. The effects of catering to specific communities have taken its toll among the Maratha community with complaints surrounding Prabhu Chauhan of BJP catering to villages dominated by Lambadi community. On the other hand, Schedule Tribe, Muslims, and Harijans are more inclined towards INC. More support was seen for INC in the urban areas of the region especially by small and large businessmen.
There is a growing consensus of anti-incumbency against Prabhu Chauhan. This was also seen in Prabhu Chauhan’s native village Ekamba . The village is primarily dominated by Marathas followed by Lingayat, Lambadi and Muslims respectively. Primary reason for the growing agitation against Prabhu Chauhan is the massive influx of people belonging to Banjara community migrating to Ekamba village, a move supported by Prabhu Chauhan. This migration of people has led to people of Banjara community owning majority of the agricultural land in the region leaving few and scarce land available for other communities. The consensus of anti-incumbency has been further aggravated due to internal disputes within BJP recently. Recently citing attitude problem and inaccessibility of Prabhu Chauhan to party cadres and general public, several BJP workers tendered mass resignation from the party. Prominent BJP members including BJP district vice-president Prakash Tonne, former district vice president Chandrashekar Deshmukh, former district general secretary Suchitra Hangaragi were among other who tendered resignation from the party.
INC has decided to provide ticket to Shinde Bhimsen Rao for the upcoming election. In the past he has been actively working in the constituency and has gained significant influence in the region. This has led to people in the constituency believing and hoping for change and development in the region which was lagging during Prabhu Chauhan tenure. On a larger perspective the upcoming election will be a two-horse race between BJP and INC but considering the rise in anti-incumbency against Prabhu Chauhan and mass exodus of prominent members of BJP in recent weeks, it seems difficult for BJP to retain its position of power in the constituency and INC has good chance of reclaiming the seat in the upcoming election.
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